Aging is Expensive

Aging is Expensive

An Essay by Izzy Sommers, Welland, Canada, November, 2005

Yesterday, Thursday, November 24, 2005, you published a front page article with a photograph, “Seniors’ centre looks at expansion,” by GREG FURMINGER, Tribune Staff. It was scary. In the first sentence there was a threat: “Plans are afoot for a $3-million expansion... “ In the third paragraph, it says that the Rose City Seniors’ Activity Centre was built for 500, that there’s now 1300 members, and that there may be 2,500 members by 2007. I believe at least three times, or more, that many folks over the age of 50 stay away from the Centre because of what it costs to belong, and play, there. Some members are happy to volunteer to work for the city. Others grumble that the City is making a profit “on their backs.”

Welland has a growing population of about 60,000 at this time, I believe. Just a few years ago, it was 45,000, approximately. I’m guessing that the changing social and economic conditions of lower birth rates, lower marriage rates, lower employment opportunities, pressure for 2 income families leaving seniors to fend for themselves if they live with their children, and quiet community conditions favouring settlement here after retirement, will make the senior population one quarter to one third of the population, say 15,000 to 20,000 over the age of 50. This means that whatever the feasibility studies show, the numbers presented above grossly underestimate the size of the population which could avail themselves of a seniors’ activity centre.

The scary aspects are many:

(1) Almost all building estimates by any government are under-estimates, in the long run. A projected cost of $3,000,000 could easily turn out to be $6,000,000, in reality.

(2) The under-estimation of the population of seniors means that, within short order, someone will propose more expansion, perhaps adding another $6,000,000, if only in inflationary rises.

(3) Using the numbers quoted in the article, the cost per elderly person could be about $2,400. In my experience with estimates, this could be more like $7,200 to $9,600 per senior.

As a donation, these moneys, could mean that each and every one of the seniors could afford a high quality used car, meals for one or two years or more, or several trips to inexpensive places. As a cost, this would be prohibitive, assuming most elderly folks are on fixed pensions that could hardly accommodate these numbers, even if it were only a one time cost, which it usually isn’t. Someone has to pay for all of these projects, the initial ones and the expansive ones. Wonder of wonders, it’s always us, the people who buy your newspapers, the folks who pay taxes, the folks who make charitable donations, and the folks that volunteer to help out. And, as indicated, it always costs us more than the original estimates.

Articles of this sort are scarier, from a cost point of view, than many of the more spectacular articles about murder and theft. It usually means the tightening of our belts, yet another notch, and the filling of government coffers and political pockets.

Thank you for listening.

The End